The Decision Lab

T-48h data packet review

I ran the data packets early today and will be having more processed each day ahead of Friday.

The more I run, the more I want to post multiple teams to explore each of the different possibilities of where to weight the points. The output below breaks down three different teams set ups with the scores being the EP for the first 6 game weeks. It actually puts the no Halaand squad ahead by 17 points, which is why i probably will run a few different versions of this and then try and break out the decision making from it.

The expected points is the deciding factor for the captain/vice captain decision and its held Bruno as captain the last week.

Below is the exact agent output.

Agent output: T-48h initial-squad checkpoint

The T-48h packet is sealed locally, about seven hours early.

New bind: 3b6e5ea1… (T-48h, observed 19 Aug 11:52 UK). Still live_faithful_degraded; approval blocked. Full artefacts are under reports/live/2026-27/initial-squad/T-48h/ (gitignored). The committed summary is ready at reports/strategy-research/packets/T-48h.json but not pushed.

Does it change the 15? No. The current Haaland-in side still validates on the new packet (Bruno C, same 3-4-3, bank £0.5m). Host scores: human_reference 238.61, robust 234.32. The new no-Haaland robust arm is still ahead at 255.88 (Rice / Semenyo / Rogers / Anderson; no Haaland). Same pattern as 11 Aug.

Tzolis is in this packet and looks worse than Harry Wilson: EP 2.19 / start_p 0.41 vs 3.67 / 0.73. Do not swap him in on this score.

Today’s X digest - nothing that should move the side.

SignalVs this 15Call
Haaland vs BrunoPacket still Bruno 6.37 > Haaland 5.74Keep Bruno (C)
Rogers minutes debateNot in the 15; is in the new robust armWatch, not a change
Doku calf 75%Official d; not in the packet universeIgnore
Nørgaard 25%Not in the 15Ignore
Timber training / White-Mosquera GW2We have no Arsenal DEFGW2 only
Cheap DEF / DefConAlready have Van Hecke / Mitchell / ShawNo change
BB1 chatterDiop / van Ewijk still non-playingHold chips
Gross off pens / Hinshelwood / TavernierOne-account or puntsNo

Warning: this used the official id T-48h. The 18:30 Windows job must not recapture the same id with different bytes - it will fail closed. Treat tonight as already done, or use a different id.

Finished Run T-48h initial-squad decision checkpoint

The early T-48h checkpoint finished successfully. Packet 3b6e5ea1… is on disk; the current Haaland-in 15 still validates and still does not beat the no-Haaland robust arm.

Current advisory XI (unchanged on T-48h)

Verbruggen; Van Hecke, Mitchell, Shaw; B.Fernandes, Gibbs-White, E.Le Fée, Wilson; Haaland, João Pedro, Thiago.

C / VC: Bruno / Haaland. Bench: Dubravka, Xhaka, Diop, van Ewijk. £99.5m / £0.5m ITB.