The Decision Lab

GW1 after the deadline

I’ve had the daily strategy loop running through GW1 and now into Friday. Same as the earlier posts: it names a 15, captain, chips, and what would change its mind. Grok was the main advisory arm for a while, Composer has been doing the later daily notes. I still look at it before anything is treated as entered.

The more I ran it, the more I wanted more than one side live. The T-48h packet still validated the Haaland-in 15 and still had the no-Haaland robust arm ahead on the six-gameweek score (255.88 against 234.32). That’s why I entered both.

Agent output: T-48h (19 Aug, already on here)

Does it change the 15? No. The current Haaland-in side still validates on the new packet (Bruno C, same 3-4-3, bank £0.5m). Host scores: human_reference 238.61, robust 234.32. The new no-Haaland robust arm is still ahead at 255.88 (Rice / Semenyo / Rogers / Anderson; no Haaland). Same pattern as 11 Aug.

Packet still weekly-2026-08-11 / live_faithful_degraded. That never got a same-packet host rescore of the Haaland-in 15 before lock.

How the 15 actually moved

The 10 Aug post was a different side (Gabriel, Rogers, Szoboszlai, Ndiaye, Beto, Haaland C). On 12 Aug it changed: Van Hecke, Gibbs-White, Le Fée, Wilson, Thiago in, captain to Bruno. That 15 then stuck.

GK was the one late move. T-48h still had Verbruggen in the XI and Dubravka on the bench. By lock it was Kinsky, Verbruggen first on the bench.

Haaland-in (advisory, locked)

Kinsky; Van Hecke, Mitchell, Shaw; B.Fernandes, Gibbs-White, E.Le Fée, Wilson; Haaland, João Pedro, Thiago.

C / VC: Bruno / Haaland. Bench: Verbruggen, Xhaka, Diop, van Ewijk.

No-Haaland (the other one I entered)

Raya; Gabriel, Guéhi, Senesi, Truffert; Bruno, Semenyo, Rice, Anderson; João Pedro, Beto.

C / VC: Bruno / Semenyo. Bench: Verbruggen, Shaw, Rogers, Obi.

What GW1 actually did

Average 36. Highest 114.

No-Haaland 48

PlayerPts
João Pedro11
Guéhi10
Raya6
Gabriel5
Bruno (C)4
Senesi3
Rice3
Semenyo2
Anderson2
Truffert1
Beto1

Rogers 8 sat on the bench. Verbruggen 6 too.

Haaland-in 29

PlayerPts
João Pedro11
Bruno (C)4
Wilson3
Haaland2 (90)
Kinsky2
Gibbs-White2
E.Le Fée2
Van Hecke1
Mitchell1
Shaw1
Thiago0

Xhaka 9 sat on the bench. All 11 played, so no autosub.

Pedro 11 and Bruno (C) 4 in both. Guéhi 10 and the Arsenal defence against three 1s. Haaland 2 from 90.

T-48h robust arm 57

Raya; Guéhi, Virgil, Senesi, Tarkowski; Bruno, Rice, Semenyo, Rogers, Anderson; João Pedro.

Bruno (C). All 11 played.

PlayerPts
João Pedro11
Guéhi10
Rogers8
Raya6
Tarkowski6
Bruno (C)4
Senesi3
Rice3
Virgil2
Semenyo2
Anderson2

Bench unused: Pickford 7, Mitchell 1, Beto 1, Obi 0.

Into GW2

Deadline Friday 28 Aug, 18:30 UK.

The 27 Aug note is still the same 15. Still rolling. Still Bruno (C) for Ipswich (H), Haaland (VC) at Palace (A). No chip. João Pedro has gone 7.5 to 7.6.

Agent output: 27 Aug hold

Squad thesis in one sentence: Hold the Haaland-in / Bruno-core 3-4-3 one day before the GW2 deadline, treat Gibbs-White’s knee as an elevated FT watch with Xhaka cover (cup miss still community-only; Glasner targeting Saturday), and bank the free transfer into tomorrow’s pressers.

Key falsifiers: official Forest source rules Gibbs-White out of Liverpool; Wilson minutes collapse vs Brentford while Rogers/Palmer stay nailed; Haaland limited at Palace while Semenyo hauls; official Spurs XI restores Dubravka over Kinsky; host rescore of Haaland-in vs robust no-Haaland flips the structure once a fresher packet exists.

Pressers Friday.

Last data packet Friday as well, then a look at both before any last-minute changes.

Current advisory XI (27 Aug)

Kinsky; Van Hecke, Mitchell, Shaw; B.Fernandes, Gibbs-White, E.Le Fée, Wilson; Haaland, João Pedro, Thiago.

C / VC: Bruno / Haaland. Bench: Verbruggen, Xhaka, Diop, van Ewijk.